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Truth and Lies About Medicare
Republican attacks on President Obama’s plans
for Medicare are growing more heated and inaccurate by the day. Both Mitt
Romney and Paul Ryan made statements last week implying that the Affordable
Care Act would eviscerate Medicare when in fact the law should shore up the
program’s finances.
Both men have also twisted themselves into
knots to distance themselves from previous positions, so that voters can no
longer believe anything they say. Last week, both insisted that they would save
Medicare by pumping a huge amount of money into the program, a bizarre
turnaround for supposed fiscal conservatives out to rein in federal spending.
The likelihood that they would stand by that
irresponsible pledge after the election is close to zero. And the likelihood
that they would be better able than Democrats to preserve Medicare for the
future (through a risky voucher system that may not work well for many
beneficiaries) is not much better. THE ALLEGED “RAID ON MEDICARE” A Republican attack ad says that the
reform law has “cut” $716 billion from Medicare, with the money used to expand
coverage to low-
income people who are currently uninsured. “So now the money you paid for your guaranteed health care is going to a massive new government program that’s not for you,” the ad warns.
income people who are currently uninsured. “So now the money you paid for your guaranteed health care is going to a massive new government program that’s not for you,” the ad warns.
What the Republicans fail to say is that the
budget resolutions crafted by Paul Ryan and approved by the
Republican-controlled House retained virtually the same cut in Medicare.
In reality, the $716
billion is not a “cut” in benefits but rather
the savings in costs that the Congressional Budget Office
projects over the next decade from wholly reasonable provisions in the reform
law.
One big chunk of money will be saved by
reducing unjustifiably high subsidies to private Medicare Advantage plans that enroll many
beneficiaries at a higher average cost than traditional Medicare. Another will come from reducing
the annual increases in federal reimbursements to health care providers — like hospitals,
nursing homes and home health agencies — to force the notoriously
inefficient system to find ways to improve productivity.
And a further chunk
will come from fees or taxes imposed on drug
makers, device makers and insurers — fees that they can
surely afford since expanded coverage for the uninsured will increase their
markets and their revenues.
NO HARM TO SENIORS The Republicans imply
that the $716 billion in cuts will harm older Americans, but almost none of the
savings come from reducing the benefits available for people already on
Medicare. But if Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan were able to repeal the reform law, as
they have pledged to do, that
would drive up costs for many seniors — namely those with high prescription drug
costs, who are already receiving subsidies under the reform
law, and those who are receiving preventive services, like colonoscopies,
mammograms and immunizations, with no cost sharing.
Mr. Romney argued on Friday that the $716
billion in cuts will harm beneficiaries because those who get discounts or
extra benefits in the heavily subsidized Medicare Advantage plans will lose
them and because reduced payments to hospitals and other providers could cause
some providers to stop accepting Medicare patients.
If he thinks that will be a major problem,
Mr. Romney should leave the reform law in place: it has many provisions
designed to make the delivery of health care more efficient and cheaper, so
that hospitals and others will be better able to survive on smaller payments.
NO BANKRUPTCY LOOMING The Republicans also
argue that the reform law will weaken Medicare and that by preventing the cuts
and ultimately turning to vouchers they will enhance the program’s solvency.
But Medicare is not in danger of going “bankrupt”; the issue is whether the
trust fund that pays hospital bills will run out of money in 2024, as now
projected, and require the program to live on the annual payroll tax revenues
it receives.
The Affordable Care Act helped push back the
insolvency date by eight years, so repealing the act would actually bring the
trust fund closer to insolvency, perhaps in 2016.
DEFICIT REDUCTION Mr. Romney and Mr.
Ryan said last week that they would restore the entire $716 billion in cuts by
repealing the law. The
Congressional Budget Office concluded that repealing the law would raise the
deficit by $109 billion over 10 years.
The Republicans gave no clue about how they would pay for
restoring the Medicare cuts without increasing the deficit. It
is hard to believe that, if faced with the necessity of fashioning a realistic
budget, keeping Medicare spending high would be a top priority with a
Romney-Ryan administration that also wants to spend very large sums on the
military and on tax cuts for wealthy Americans.
Regardless
of who wins the election, Medicare spending has to be reined in lest it squeeze
out other priorities, like education. It is utterly irresponsible for the
Republicans to promise not to trim Medicare spending in their desperate bid for
votes.
THE DANGER IN
MEDICARE VOUCHERS The reform law would
help working-age people on modest incomes buy private policies with government
subsidies on new insurance exchanges, starting in 2014. Federal oversight will
ensure a reasonably comprehensive benefit package, and competition among the
insurers could help keep costs down.
But it is one thing to provide these “premium
support” subsidies for uninsured people who cannot get affordable coverage in
the costly, dysfunctional markets that serve individuals and their families. It
is quite another thing to use a similar strategy for older Americans who have
generous coverage through Medicare and who might well end up worse off if their
vouchers failed to keep pace with the cost of decent coverage.
Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan would allow
beneficiaries to use vouchers to buy a version of traditional Medicare instead
of a private plan, but it seems likely that the Medicare plan would attract the
sickest patients, driving up Medicare premiums so that they would be
unaffordable for many who wanted traditional coverage. Before disrupting the
current Medicare program, it would be wise to see how well premium support
worked in the new exchanges.
THE CHOICE This will be an
election about big problems, and it will provide a clear choice between
contrasting approaches to solve them. In the Medicare arena, the choice is
between a Democratic approach that wants to retain Medicare as a guaranteed set
of benefits with the government paying its share of the costs even if costs
rise, and a Republican approach that wants to limit the government’s spending
to a defined level, relying on untested market forces to drive down insurance
costs.
The reform law is starting pilot programs to
test ways to reduce Medicare costs without cutting benefits. Many health care
experts have identified additional ways to shave hundreds of billions of
dollars from projected spending over the next decade without harming
beneficiaries.
It is much less likely that the Republicans,
who have long wanted to privatize Medicare, can achieve these goals.
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